Those are pretty broad assumptions.
First. You basically assumed that THE SAME accounts appear in the amount of daily players. You have to take in the fact that not everyone plays everyday. There are weekend players and players who play on specific days.
And after that you have to take into account that they play at different times. Those who play on SEA generally do not play at the same time as those in US West for example. And this doesn't only vary per timezone/server, this also varies from person to person.
You also assumed that there are equal player divisions per region, and the fact that you took into account smurfs as a part of the NORMAL population. (For example, I have only 2 accounts and I don't play on my second, not unless my internet lags etc.)
Basically there's way too much information that is unavailable to you for you to even get a precise amount of players that make up the DoTA population. The numbers that you throw are all random and are very broad assumptions. To get a precise amount, you need actual information from valve (more than player database and unique accounts).
The actual total number of real players in dota 2 is about 7 million currently. Last night there were 650k simultaneously in-game. That is a new record high.
What you consider good depends on how good you are most ikely. Dota 2 players do not have 3 accounts on average. They have just over 1 on average. Nearly everyone has just 1 account. The vast, vast majority of players are casual playing only a couple times a week or less.
People who post here are not typical players, even the weakest dota 2 players that regularly post here are elite players compared to the general population of casuals. If you are ranked higher than 80% of players then there are always about 50k player in game right now who are better than you. Often its over 100k players playing who are better than you.
Depending on the time of day there will be a lot more or less on in a given region/server. But if you want people to play this second... well now there are not so many in the que, right now. If you don't want the search range to expand and to include ppl far above or below your MMR then you need to cancel it while it is still small and re-que. If you cancel every minute and reset it you will get people a lot closer to your MMR. But that does not mean they will have a great game... maybe they will pick a hero they don't know and fail, maybe they will be a in a bad mood and throw, maybe they will be drunk.
If you want a team you believe is "good" then you must choose it yourself. Que with 5 players. Dota is a team game.
I may of misinterpreted the title but did you count 2250 + as good, in my experiance the good start at 3.5k and the really good at 4.5k
Goddamit i'm at 4k...i think my development of RSI is causing me to drop in my skill level :( oh wells
I like the number crunch attempts but I believe your numbers and assumptions are terribly wrong.
However, that being said, the final number should not be that high if you want the match making system to be better (the less potential matches, the higher the quality of those matches)
@ Grrr. Yea we coulda won that game when you was VS. If only you stun more, but that wasn't as important as our carry who basically let us 4v5 whole game decided to throw the game TWICE.
Notably Legion Commander, running in a 5v5 with a BKB'ed Ursa and going YOLO in a 1v3 later on. The guy didn't care if we won or lose he just had fun and loving his KDR...:( He didn't even help push!
God... why do people play ranked games????
That game afterwards was basically a volvo stack to make us win again. Basically we won with just the three of us. Me, you and Ursa alone.
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I'm probably really low ranked player atm. But being paired in really bad ranked games, but have any you guys tried to say calculate the amount of GOOD players in dota 2 yet?
Say out of the total population. I've noticed only 100k change in dota 2 population flucation per night/day. So we add 100k to the 500k to get our daily average simultaneous players. So let's say there are only actually 500k players in the world. Divided by multi-accounters, poor players (sub 49%), bots/traders, regions (3 general areas). Where would you draw the line on the veteran or in-house player population?
Population: 600k
Dividers:
3 account on average (guess) on multi-accounters considering 2-10 accounts that HC smurfs have.
3 regions (asia, europe, americas)
2 (average botters/afkers/traders per real account)
That leaves 50,000 REAL accounts. I'd say my skill range IMO is 51% of the population, but my dota rating says I'm roughly 80%. I'm only willing to play with say 80-100%. So give or take 20%. That means I'm willing to play with 40% or 2x give or take both ways of the population.
Which leads me to believe There are only 20,000 accounts that are WORTHY of playing with? Anyways I'm willing to see how you guys think and formulate the ACTUAL good dota population.
ps. please no trolling