General Discussion

General DiscussionThe weird phenomenon of dropping MMR over time

The weird phenomenon of dropping MMR over time in General Discussion
Nemesis

    So most people seem to stay at their MMRs indefinitely or maybe rise a few hundred points after a few months, but every now and then you get these people who drop like 500 points even though it's been like...8-9 months since ranked came out. they make some post about it on [x] forum so this is quite intriguing

    i think our resident dotabuff poster bogidoto was 4500 at calibration and in every thread he makes he whines about how bad "4k trashes" are or whatever the buzz phrase is because he drops back down to 4200 or w/e and he thinks these people are to blame

    there are 2 possibilities (or maybe it's both, but unlikely to be both):

    1) average skill shifts upward

    2) the player gets worse over time

    i don't think #1 is the case. i recently played through 4300-4700 (i had a pretty nasty loss streak months back and stopped playing solo on this account consecutively) with something like 75-80% win rate and now i'm down to like 55-60% near 4800, so i'm pretty close to my actual MMR. there IS a skill difference every 500 points, it's just subtle sometimes and not easily detectable but you can tell if you pay close attention and if you exploit those differences you can easily win most of your games

    so i'd like to consider possibility #2. now it's possible the people complaining that their MMRs are lower by several hundred points (and haven't been able to climb back up consistently) were overcalibrated, but people didn't really abuse calibration when ranked first came out so i'd say it was fairly accurate. more likely than not people were UNDERcalibrated because they didn't know how much hero dmg affected MMR

    is it even possible to get worse? i mean we're talking about people who actually play like 10 games a day LOL, not people who developed carpel tunnel

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    wraithseeker

      tldr u don't really get stuck at a certain MMR range, especially not in the case of Bogi which clearly shows that hes not playing good enough to be at his calibration mmr

      kanye went to uni

        Bogi actually climbed in MMR before he dropped.

        I'm pretty much resigned to the fact I'm never going to move, I'm 24 points away from where I calibrated and I've never strayed more than 100 points :P :(

        Miku Plays

          i got calibrated in 2.6 mmr now im going up and down around 3k-3.2k. the only possiblity i can see why im stuck in this are:

          1. limited pool of heroes, not to mention theyre quite easy to counter
          2. i got 10 months worth of dota experience
          3. made a smurf to fck around which affects my gameplay on my main

          wraithseeker

            bogi probably played back in the days when no one used to counter slark but now people have learnt.

            Metallicize

              lol, you don't get worse over time, you either stagnate (if you think your teammates are shit and your team is to blame) or you go up in mmr (when you actually look at your gameplay).

              4Skin

                You have to improve at the same times as playing, simple as that.

                Forgos ☭

                  İ have started with 3k and climbed to 3.9 İt was pretty hard to climb up for a support player.I love losing when i have an even game or even when i throw the game but this type of games wasn't that common un 3k.I was having this types of games when i have played with my 5k-4k friends.When i arrived to 3.9 i had three games in a row with a thrower mid players (two non english speakers sent suo mis and end up feeding) and stuff like that.Afterwards i went on a losing stream (8games to be precise) and got back 3.6 or 3.5.i accept i haven't played my best but i am so sick of seeing mid callers and end up feeding in mid dying 3 times un 6 minutes.